I want to be wrong about this, but I’ve been watching things, and this is where i see the path theyre on going.
America has various “problems” i quote it because these are problems of Empire. Fabricated things, or things that wouldnt be an issue were they not an empire.
The one’s I’ll be addressing are as follows:
- A lack of cheap domestic labor.
- Supply chains reliant on political enemies.
- A lack of cheap natural resources.
- an overextended military
The US elites are struggling to fix these “problems”, and I think I know their plan to do so.
Recently the US deployed troops to the caribbean. This was seen by latin american leaders as a very dangerous and provacative move. I think it’s preperations for an invasion of Venezuela.
Why invade Venezuela? Well they have a lot of oil, are close to the US, and their oil is mostly on the coast. So i think the US wants to occupy the oil infrastucture, and then bomb the rest of the country to keep it in chaos while they extract the oil. Not a full occupation. Just a targetted one to get resources. The strategy for doing this is something they’ve perfected over the years. This solves their cheap oil problem. They can flood the market with this oil, and plunge energy prices. Something they’ve been asking OPEC+ to do, but they’ve refused.
US Oil companies go along with it because they get free oil to sell. It’s free money the bill is footed by the US govt.
This though will just be the first step of the plan. The United states has been flying recon drones over Mexico, and authorized it’s military to take action “against the cartels” there too.
They’ve been doing this for months.
This implies they are creating a map of the country. Especially the northern parts. Which they’d be able to use for any operations there.
I think they are planning an occupation of the northern parts of Mexico. They will surge across the border Blitz style, and use political pressure to get the Mexican govt to capitulate, or just claim it’s cartel controlled, and destroy it themselves.
The goal of this will be twofold. Create a highly militarized buffer zone between the US, and latin america. This means that as climate change worsens, and their military operations in latin america get more extreme they don’t have a european style refugee crisis. This buffer zone also works as one giant concentration camp. They deport anyone they want into it, and since it isn’t US soil legally they can do anything they want. They’ll use this to create their cheap labor pool. Companies can build factories here, and have plenty of cheap labor. Essentially slave labor. They will likely start programs for migrants to “work for residency”. Where they will be told if they spend 10 years working in the buffer zone they’ll be allowed into the US proper. This will rarely actually happen of course.
Now they’re in a position where they can move industry back near the US, and without losing their cheap labor. They can scale down military actions in the middle east because they have access to Venezuelan oil, and they can focus fully on maintaining control of the America’s and the Pacific. While using Europe as a buffer against Russia, and a captive market for US weapons.
So to go back to their “problems”
- A lack of cheap domestic labor. Slave labor in northern mexico. “Solved.”
- Supply chains reliant on political enemies. Northern Mexico as new industrial hub. “Solved.”
- A lack of cheap natural resources. Extract resources for free from occupied regions. “Solved.”
- an overextended military Get’s to focus on China, and on a very nearby war which makes supply lines easier while delegating many duties to the EU, and abandoning the middle east. Likely delegating it to Israel. “Solved.”
It is a horrific, and evil plan so i think it’s exactly what they intend to do. From the perspective of a souless blood sucking American leech it puts them in a much better position. The EU can’t do anything to protest since theyd be reliant on US weapons. Israel would love to be let loose on the middle east. Major potential enemies are kept busy. Russia has to stay on alert against a newly militarized EU, China has to worry about a growing US presence in the pacific, and Iran is busy fighting Israel. There’s nobody in the Americas who can stop them. Brazil is the only one who might be able to do something, but theyre far enough away, and would likely be paid off in cheap oil so they arent likely to do anything. Then domestically the AmeriKKKans will be eating up the anti-immigrant, and “anti-Cartel military operation” line. Plus they’ll be seeing lower gas prices, and new imported treats from the slave labor zone. So they’ll be content.
I hope I’m wrong, and if anyone disagrees i would love to hear why. I really do see this as atleast what they will attempt. Will they succeed? I hope not.
The US is the world’s largest oil producer now, oil is relatively cheap at 64 for WTI and futures curves show no expectations of market tightness. This isn’t 2001 where oil was flirting with 120, fracking has changed everything. And there are much easier paths to cheap oil than invading Venezuela, such as lifting Iranian sanctions. Oil below 60 is bad for the US now.
That said they’re definitely up to something fishy in LatAm. Also could be purely ideological. Whatever it is this place has deep structural rot that can only be addressed by violence, so regardless of oil or whatever the setup isn’t good.
The oil prices now are kind of weird. The companies want them high because its currently expensive to extract it. All that fracking for example is more expensive than a traditional well. But the govt wants it low.
I think what they want to do is shift production somewhere itll be cheap, and just let the oil companes have free oil basically. Then the govt can get prices really cheap like they want to, and the companies still make a profit. Because the reason they wont lower prices now is they wouldnt make a profit if they did.
Plus theres a huge energy demand in the US right now. Theyre pushing the grid to its limits with AI shit, and theyre not about to build solar. So they have to get that extra energy somewhere.
Also important to note the US may be the largest producer right now but they arent the largest reserve. Which means if things stay how they are the US will run out of oil before the rest of the world. Not good for the war machine. Venezuela has the largest reserves in the world. So if they can use that instead they can keep production high and not tap into the US oil as much.
I’d wonder if an invasion of Venezuela is feasible.
The US military hasn’t been very effective against on-the-ground insurgency style challenges (Iraq, Afghanistan, Viet Nam)
It has the “we push a button and all the valuable infrastructure burns” problem-- you’d have to sink a lot of costs and time into rebuilding the oil industry before you see barrel one of return. Potentially long enough for it to becomeba political or economic liability.
OTOH, they’ll kill God before pivoting to renewables, so :shrug:
Venezuela (really, almost any country in the Western hemisphere) has another problem that invasions in Asia didn’t have; there are millions and millions of people in the US that speak the same language, have the same culture, and practice the same religion. Even if they expell all those immigrants there’s still second and third generation and expelling them would collapse the economy. They’re here to stay.
And this isn’t like Cuba with the USs large gusano population. The vast majority of people who migrated from South and Central America to the US are people who were harmed by the US, not by revolution. They’re also people being harmed by the US right now. This cohort has a totally different character.
Well the vast majority of Venezuelan oil infrastructure is right on the coast. Thats why i think they wont do a full invasion. Just grab the oil stuff, and bomb the shit out of everything else. So all they have to do is secure a few coastal areas. Theres a lot of islands off the Venezuelan coast they could use as safe places to stage their actions in the region from. Once they get air and naval supremacy.
Just grab the oil stuff, and bomb the shit out of everything else
I don’t think that’s realistically possible. Venezuela could just destroy its own oil infrastructure just to avoid war if oil is everything what the attacker wants
Yes, but this also directly mirrors the situation in the USSR when the Germans invaded to get their oil. Imperialist nations tend to just go for it, and not really think about long term feasibility. Like this is what i think the US is planning, but i doubt it actually works out for them how they want it to if they try. Once they commit to it though they’ll keep going to avoid embarrassing themselves. Until theyre forced to stop.
There are weak links in this:
- Israel as ruthless and vicious as it is, it still can’t subdue a much larger population. The main advantage it has other than US-sourced weaponry is that Southwest Asia is divided among itself.
- Europe is aging and deindustrializing and I don’t see how this can be reversed in less than a generation.
Other than it is a plausible scenario but also a sign of retreat for the US that it has limited itself to the Americas.
The way i see it those arent really major problems for the US. All it needs is distractions. It doesnt need the EU, or Israel to win.
Which would then mean the margins of the Empire (Europe and Israel) disintegrating rapidly, further reducing overal global hegemony of the US.
I don’t think there’s enough of an appetite for a full scale invasion. Ever since the wind down of Iraq/Afghanistan, they’ve been very hesitant to do a large scale land invasion. I think even an unrealistically small “we can win with minimal ground footprint” invasion of Venezuela would see at least a hundred thousand military personnel entering the country. Realistically, they’d need a lot more (whether they’d be realistic is another matter)
Instead they’ve focused on special forces, use of proxies, and bombing. It’s possible, but I doubt it
I see their current use of national guard and expansion of ICE as them laying the ground work for it. Getting the extra personnel ready, and getting people used to a militarized lifestyle.
Committing to a huge land invasion of Venezuela doesn’t really seem like the Americans’ style right now. They’re more about decapitation strikes and shadow war special ops shit.
I have been thinking Trump is setting us up for a civil war. Project 2025 being written by a bunch of Christian extremists, want there fiefdoms in middle America.
many would say Christian extremists already have fiefdoms in the US and that Civil War 2 has already started.
The fiefdoms merely want to expand their terrority to include the blue states and blue cities.
I remember Trump tried to stir shit with Venezuela in his first term too, it ended with a bunch of tacticool mercenaries getting arrested the moment their boats got to the beach.
Wasn’t some fisherman responsible for stopping them or am I confusing coup attempts?
Bay of Guineapigs.
That sounds a lot more adorable then what actually happened.
most of it looks plausible in the intentions…but the execution is the issue.
the US wants to occupy the oil infrastucture, and then bomb the rest of the country to keep it in chaos while they extract the oil
something like daesh is more complicated in latam bc the most reactionary christians here would not be moved to die for the “holy war” of the west, and the fight against communism is pretty weak these days. and there’s many hostile governments aganist the us in america, we don’t know how violent things can get if the us goes full mask-off. going in a bombing plan would be difficult with the us in the verge of a civil war or something
Create a highly militarized buffer zone between the US, and latin america
they couldn’t be able to finish a wall between mexico and the us and mexico didn’t pay for it
They did TRY to build a wall though. Despite it being impractical, expensive, and destined to fail. This shows they are willing to commit fully to these ridiculous solutions in order to avoid doing the logical thing. Which would be to dismantle their empire.
Can’t sit down to write a proper reply right now, but I think you’re on the right track. Just disagree with outright invasion and occupation of Venezuela.
I reckon an expansion of forced labour camps along the southern border works better with a perspective of a Milei/Libya strategy of destabilization of neighbouring countries driving refugees north, either through imposed anti-leaderships (Noboa) or through drone warfare (Haiti).
That could be the basis for some sort of “reindustrialization” along the southern border with refugee labour, pivot the US navy from North Africa to the Eastern South America and could even make sense with annexing Canada for Arctic Sea control.
Need to read up some more to back this up, but I think I can fit direct strikes on Cuban soil more than actual Venezuelan boots-on-ground occupation. I also think that any geopolitical predictions need to take into account the surprising growing unrest in USA soil from the last couple years.
Ive got this feeling that theyre looking for a way to pay off the whiteys. Like the unrest domestically has historically been solved with treats. What treats are they willing to offer though? Im thinking immigrant labor camps could be a way to offer cheap goods to keep the AmeriKKKans happy. Like here take your 100$ PS7 made by slaves in Tiajuana and shut up.
AFAIK it wasn’t just cheap consumer goods but a decrease in the cost of living in general, with lower rent, affordable housing and low cost college that maintained a comfortable “international labour aristocracy” of sorts at home, while repressing “subversives” of every sort.
Currently key sectors of the US economy such as housing, healthcare and education are financialized to the point that most have to put themselves into massive debt to afford it. This is counterproductive to keeping down economic unrest, so it’d need to be tackled somehow. On the other hand, importing the bureaucrats, researchers and such from the upper classes of the ROTW has been policy for decades, which now stands in contradiction with both the surge in racist/xenophobic sentiment that is somehow extending to visas (usually a tool of upper middle class migrants) and also China’s competitive industrial complexity.
I can’t see what “treats” that can be handed down to the local white population without dismantling the housing, student debt and healthcare cartels, which would require lots of bourgeois infighting, though I bet the Democrats would be happy to oblige in co-opting the grassroots movements towards that rather than dismantling the empire.
Then again, I’m just doing freestyle sociology because this is all off the top of my head lol
An invasion of Venezuela with 5000 troops? Sounds like a rerun of the bay of pigs.
Lets hope so lol. I think theyd use the 5000 as like a starter force and move more in once it got going tho. Im thinking ICE and The national guard will be used as a manpower pool for wars going forward. Or they could even try a roman Auxiliaries thing and offer people theyre deporting citizenship if they serve in the military for a decade or so.
