Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • grandepequeno [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    22 hours ago

    Why is a doom wave hitting the mega rn, did a couple missiles land in Tehran or something?

    EDIT: I’m israeling (stealing) my own comment to share this take I just saw, I’m gonna post the interesting bits here, what does everybody think?

    The China Syndrome. All of the materials required to build drones and ballistic missiles are available, cheap, from China. China gets a lot of oil from Iran, uses Iran for transhipment, and is in general a major ally of Iran. It is also aware that taking out Iran is one of the steps before war with it. Just as I said that China would not allow Russia to be taken out by sanctions (and was right), I expect China in the case of any sort of duration of this war, and, indeed, after it, to supply Iran with everything it needs to ramp up production of missiles and drones. Since China’s production abilities exceed those of the West when it comes to these requirements, this is not a small thing.

    No Army Means No Fall. Iran cannot be defeated by airpower alone unless there is a significant uprising in the country which the army is unable or unwilling to stop. One should never underestimate the CIA’s regime change abilities, of course, but if they don’t pull it off then this war is about reducing Iran’s power projection ability: doing enough damage that they surrender in spirit if not in fact.

    The Khameini Problem. Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand ever single time during this crisis, most importantly when not sending ground troops to stop the fall of Assad. , This caused great problems with the younger members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are hardliners almost to a man. The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners,.

    Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder. If they do so, it will be a huge mistake. It will end the non-nuclear fatwa (though the Iraniams will lie about that) and put hardliners in charge. Ironically, the best thing Khameini could do for Iran right now is be Martyred. If Allah Wills It, let it be so. I don’t want to get too down on him, in many ways he’s run Iran very well, but he is a victim of Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times and the virtues that made them good leaders in the past make them terrible leaders in the present.

    The Russia/China Issue. Iran could have had a full military alliance with Russia. If they did, they’d be in a lot stronger position. Iran really wants to be an independent major regional power. The other option is to be the junior partner in a tripartate bloc with China and Russia. I understand why they want to avoid that, but being #3 in the world’s strongest alliance (and yes, that’s what it would be) comes with an absolute ton of benefits. They need to reconsider this issue. They will get some support from Russia and China, indeed, a lot of support, but neither country is going to go all out for them. If either would, Iran would be in a lot less danger.

    • thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      When hexbear heads are deprived of our daily missile strikes on Tel Aviv withdrawal symptoms begin to set in, mainly dooming. Please Khamenei, launch the missiles and give ups our sweet sweet fix.

    • Sebrof [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      It’s a Hexbear thing. It grows annoying, but it will pass. Just to come back with the next <<bad thing that just happened that will definitely and inevitably lead to a millenium of Western domination>>

      Though I understand some of the pain of the Doomers, things are emotional and heavy, and I have my own personal moments of doom from time to time. But I think a good grounding in historical materialism and realizing that this is a long, very long, revolution toward communism helps in keeping the eye on the long-term without getting too sidetracked. But even then, I get the Doom, but y’all gotta not let the Doom consume y’all.

    • Cowbee [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      The Entity bombed an Iranian news agency while it was live, and Iran hasn’t responded with a major volley in retaliation yet. Coupled with this is the looming threat of US involvement and the appearing lack of action on the part of Russia and China. I can empathize with the doomerism, but I do agree that this isn’t a situation to be doomer about yet.

      The Entity is flailing around and begging the US to help attack nuclear sites, but as others have shown these nuclear sites are deeply embedded even if the US used several bunker busters at the same exact point. Plus, Zionist leadership is following Great Man Theory and believes Iran will collapse if they assassinate Khamenei, which is wrong, while settlers are scrambling to leave “Israel” as fast as they can.

    • MaoShanDong [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      RE: First point about China I would hazard to guess that in this area the confidence of any pro-retaliatory hardliners is bolstered by the completion of the China-Iran rail line. I would imagine it’s also part of the reason why talks of closing the strait have even been brought up. Even if global shipping is disrupted, supply lines through the inner continent would still be operational to some capacity allowing both the export of oil and import of the raw material necessary for long term resistance. Furthermore, rail lines are far easier to repair and support even in the case of attempted sabotage or bombardment compared to ships.

    • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      because squirrel is right shrug-outta-hecks they need to be building bomb (as apparently they have not started that yet even after lebanon) and wildly escalating, instead of doing tit for tat responses and negotiating mega deals.

        • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          20 hours ago

          “arrange a bunch of shaped charges around hollowshell of 95% enriched uranium, test in a desert, improve if fails”, is easier than a siege of a city. And cheaper than 1000s of rockets. you have a proven delivery capability, show you have something to deliver. Or get deteriorated living conditions with parallel deteriorating deterrence capability

    • I suppose it makes sense to hold Iran’s chin to the flame of imperial hegemony if you were convinced that it was a liability. The levels of infiltration by western intelligence would certainly suggest that Iran may be a costly ally to have. But the timelines feel a lot more compressed than with, say, Ukraine.

      If absolutely necessary, the war in Ukraine could go on for years longer without a strategic escalation like with a direct US confrontation. Hell, Russia doesnt need to contend with dozens of F-35s and modern F-16s making daily incursions into Moscow. Russia doesnt even need to contest the black sea beyond a few drone boats.

      With the Iran Israel stuff there is at least some sort of deadline. When Russia attacked in 2022 they had nukes, Ukraine didn’t, and the US wasnt moving its carrier groups into the black sea. Iran and Israel may be similarly matched on paper but the American element alongside the mentality of the Israeli regime that makes Zelensky look sober, there’s something more present to the threat.

    • ratboy [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      19 hours ago

      I mean, I think it’s a pretty natural human reaction. People want the resistance to win so badly, and their hearts are so invested in it, I think it can be really difficult to not fall into feelings of despair every once in a while. It is important for people to try and ground themselves and remember that we are following things minute to minute and that one update isn’t going to seal the fate of Iran or Israel in that moment, but that can be tough. Even logging off can be tough, when you care so much about what’s going on around you it’s unlikely you’ll stop thinking about what’s going on. I don’t blame people for being doomer, and I don’t think people who are acting intellectually superior and looking down on people who are kinda panicking are doing much to boost morale here, either. It’s a news thread so maybe some of this stuff shouldn’t be posted but like damn we are all people, we need to give each other a little grace and encouragement, even if we are stupid individualist western leftists and that’s why people doompost or whatever.