Image is of protestors burning down the Singha Durbar, the seat of Nepal’s government offices in Kathmandu.

For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml’s comment here.


Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.

Vijay Prashad has offered his five theses as to why Nepal’s government fell that goes beyond non-specific terms like “corruption” or “color revolution”:

  1. Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.

  2. The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.

  3. The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.

  4. Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.

  5. The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.

I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • CommunistBear [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    There was apparently a meeting of 250 US lawmakers in israel today. I have yet to be able to find a list of the names though. If anyone finds it, I would be greatly appreciative

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    https://archive.ph/lou3K

    Spain pulls the plug on $823 million Israeli-backed rocket launcher deal

    Spain appears to have cancelled a €697 million ($823 million) contract for the acquisition of the High Mobility Rocket Launcher System (SILAM), developed from Israeli firm Elbit Systems’ Precise and Universal Rocket Launcher (PLUS) design.

    more

    A cancellation notice, published by Madrid’s procurement agency last week, does not provide an explanation for the move, but it sits in line with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to accelerate approval of a Royal Decree Law, consolidating an existing arms embargo against Jerusalem. The move is one of nine actions the Spanish government said it plans to take to help “stop the genocide in Gaza, pursue its perpetrators, and support the Palestinian population.” Once adopted, the Decree will establish “a legal and permanent ban on the purchase and sale of weapons, ammunition, and military equipment” to Israel, Spain’s central government announced last week. The AFP previously reported the cancelation of the SILAM deal.

    The Spanish Ministry of Defense referred Breaking Defense to “recent comments” on the matter and other cancelled weapon buys of Israeli origin from Spanish Minister of Defense Margarita Robles. “We have made it very clear that this technological material, which was being supplied to Spain by Israeli companies, will be replaced by Spanish industry,” she said. “Additional measures” announced last week by Madrid in response to the Gaza conflict include a ban on any aircraft transiting Spanish airspace to transport defense equipment to Israel. Similarly, ships carrying fuel to the Israeli armed forces are prohibited from entering Spanish ports.

    Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, in response, accused Sánchez of antisemitism and barred two senior Spanish officials from entering Israel.

    The SILAM contract was originally awarded in 2023 to a joint venture between Spanish companies Escribano Mechanical & Engineering and Rheinmetall Expal Munitions, a subsidiary of the German giant. According to the Spanish Ministry of Defense (MoD), Expal, Escribano and Spanish technology firm GMV, displayed the SILAM solution at the FEINDEF trade show in 2023, alongside Elbit, prior to contract award. The weapon system was put forward for acquisition in order to address an “absence of artillery capability that arose a decade ago when the [Spanish Army’s] Teruel system was decommissioned,” noted the MoD at the time [PDF]. Elbit Systems company literature states that PULS “can fire a variety of ammunition types to various ranges from the same position, to ranges of up to 300km.” The system can fire munitions including Accular and Predator Hawk rockets. PULS European customers include Germany, Denmark and The Netherlands. Earlier this year, Madrid cancelled a €285 million contract for the purchase of 168 launch units and 1,680 Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles produced by Israel’s Rafael. Elbit and Rafael did not immediately respond to a request for comment at the time of publication. A United Nations independent commission announced today that it has found that Israel “is responsible for the commission of genocide in Gaza” — an accusation Jerusalem has vehemently denied as it carries out military operations in Gaza that it says target Hamas fighters.

  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    queer harmer tanking it like a champ 💪burying labour for a generation or hopefully longer.

    Who would the turgidity of labour elect as their face next? wall streeting?

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        They still pissed away 2/3 of their own support, it is impressive. +like lenin could have executed half the lords with that mandate/bombed tel aviv

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          But they didn’t really have it to begin with. Lots of people just voted Labour because it wasn’t Sunak and the Tories, and even then Labour only got something like 33% of the vote. Very wild how lobsided the first past the post results were. The mandate didn’t really exist outside of the House of Commons seat majority, 66% of voters did not vote for labour. Starmer pissing it all away and Farage on the rise was the expected outcome I think, given reform got the third most votes (15%) in the election and the Torie death spiral.

          • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            The real power is in controlling the sovereign, which is house of commons. The rest is liberal drivel about mandates. There never is mandate in that sense anywhere, cause of non-voting block means every elected acts on plurality at best, including coalition governments or american duality.

            • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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              Yes, Labour could force through whatever policy or bill they want through the house, they certainly have the numbers. But what happens realistically if Labour passes a major policy 80% of the UK hates? Non voting bloc is a good point, you’re correct. However the difference in opinion between voters and non voters is not large enough that non voters are going to break rank and love whatever bill Labour passes. In all likelihood, the non voters will have a similar opinion as the voters, only a few percentage points difference. Which brings us back to the crux of the argument, what happens when a government passes major laws that the vast majority of people disapprove of?

              • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                if Labour passes a major policy 80% of the UK hates?

                and this different from their behavior how?

                (travelling to the realms of imagination, british public has never done anything, so the point is moot. But would they protest nationalizing water companies or reappropriating landed gentry infinite leases money source? or taking money from crown? or simplifiying nhs certification process or dunking on contractors in nhs?)

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      Seeing this as well as the poor trump numbers in the subthread below reinforces my guess that governments in the Democratic West ™ are increasingly unlikely to maintain a mandate for more than 1 election cycle. In neoliberal countries like the US and its vassals, all major parties are committed to neoliberalism, but neoliberalism can’t address the material challenges that affect people’s lives. Since the makeup or politics of major parties can’t change and can’t really address issues, the electorate rapidly comes to dislike the new government and drives a switch in the next election. In the past these structural challenges were present but were more easily papered over.

      I’m thinking of the US, UK, Canada and France specifically in this context, all countries that have seen elections of new governments followed by immediately plummeting popularity of new government.

      • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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        Seeing this as well as the poor trump numbers in the subthread below reinforces my guess that governments in the Democratic West ™ are increasingly unlikely to maintain a mandate for more than 1 election cycle.

        Eventually they will stop having a mandate for even a single cycle. That’s when things get interesting.

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          I mean Starmer is in that situation now with his numbers. Give Carney 6 months and he’ll be in the same boat. Trump is less vulnerable here but it’s just because of Trump’s personal rizz. Without him, the republicans are in the same situation.

    • sisatici [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Man, why it is always chuds posing as leftists and dropping it as soon as they won election. I mean we all know the reason but I would like a chud party declaring total sanction on israhell

  • jack [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    Trump’s polling is fucking disastrous right now.

    How bad is it? Even white people and rich people are negative.

    Overall: -13

    By race

    spoiler

    Hispanics: -30

    Black Americans: -73

    Hwites: -5

    By age

    spoiler

    18-29: -26

    30-44: -25

    45-64: -9

    65+: -15

    By income:

    spoiler

    <50k: -24

    50-100k: -13

    100k+: -4

    Also there’s a bunch of questions in there about political violence and Charlie Kirk. One interesting tidbit is that Harris voters are 15% more likely to say political violence is sometimes justified than Trump voters. Another interesting one is if people feel like we are at a “significant turning point in American politics”, and 67% of respondents said yes. Whites were more likely than Blacks or Hispanics to say that, but everyone is in the majority.

    There’s also a bunch of issue-specific polling on Trump’s presidency. Jobs/economy, inflation/prices, immigration, civil rights, crime, and guns. He’s negative on every single issue. Some by small margins (immigration, crime) and some by huge margins (economy, inflation). 60% of people disapprove of his handling of Epstein.

    Despite all this, the Democrats still have worse approval than the Republicans! 60% of respondents describe them as ineffective compared to 35% who say the same for Republicans. The two party system is creaky and weak right now.

    • TheModerateTankie [any]@hexbear.net
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      Trump will just post ICE agents outside voting locations in districts that have a lot of minorities and drive down participation. The Supreme Court just declared they can grab people based on skin color. Not many people will want to deal with that on behalf of a shit political party.

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      Another interesting one is if people feel like we are at a “significant turning point in American politics”, and 67% of respondents said yes. Whites were more likely than Blacks or Hispanics to say that, but everyone is in the majority.

      Living through “First time?” is kinda funny.

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      One interesting tidbit is that Harris voters are 15% more likely to say political violence is sometimes justified than Trump voters

      If you subscribe to the belief that the root of conservatism is fear then you must also subscribe to the belief that conservatives will be the first to get scared when the violence begins.

    • PosadistInevitablity [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Whatever you can say about Democrats and republicans, the republicans definitely wield power more effectively - so the poll results make sense.

      Democrats staunchly refuse to change anything and yield all power to do so.

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        Democrats are very good at what they do. They accomplish exactly what they want, which is nothing. It only seems like they are incompetent because people take them at face value that they are trying to achieve progressive reforms, when in reality that is not even a concern for them

    • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      significant turning point (good) or (bad), it’s a nothing answer. of course it’s a turning point, mfer sanctioning half the world and dunking wto in dustbin of history

      • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        they just got their free house - from their grandparents, the happiest day of any homeowner, which they can rent to future generation holding us down.

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        Has me wondering if GenX is also as lead poisoned as boomers? They certainly have the sociopathic symptoms down, even if they lack the pigheaded lead-stare aggression common to boomers

        • SadArtemis [she/her]@hexbear.net
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          As a (adult and thankfully NC with one of them) child of GenXers, I think it’s the lead, combined with seeing the height of US/western triumphalism and the “end of history” bullshit, and not having the constant devastation of 2008 onwards define their formative years (childhood all the way up to early adulthood).

          Boomers are cursed, but at least then, I feel the lines were drawn, across the map, across class interests, maybe. Granted, I’m coming from an immigrant family (parents came over when I was 2), but my parents grew up seeing this triumphalism and perhaps the high-point of western whitewashing and erasure of history, and not the worst of the ongoing atrocities of just how the western order was made and sustained. On the other hand, even my paternal grandparents who are deeply religiously colonized know what it is like to have been a colonial subject. They know what it was like to face US-destabilization and massacres and abuses of their community and broader ethnic kin, and colonial “containment” wars with the US slaughtering millions of their neighbors. In these senses (I suspect also racially, etc) there was a understanding that was- not lost, but diminished, intentionally paved over with feel-good nonsense like as if all the horrors of the west never existed, or were in some distant past, as the west portrayed itself as the gatekeepers and origin of all social progress and development. And genX was raised seeing the worst of it.

          • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.net
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            That’s genuinely terrifying, when those GenXers hit their golden years and their bones start to soften, the stored lead will begin to leech out of their bones and hit their nervous systems a second time

          • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.net
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            Only if there’s severe exposure during pregnancy, lead can cross the placenta, but lead doesn’t just hang around all over the body, in most cases once it’s done its damage it binds with the calcium in the bones and accumulates there semi-harmlessly for most of that person’s life, until old age when the bones become porous and the lead is released a second time back into the rest of the body

            Most GenXers probably weren’t poisoned during pregnancy (unless their boomer mother was exposed all the time) but instead during childhood

    • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Hasan flashed a poll yesterday (too quick for me to jot down the source) that asked people if they preferred democrats like Schumer and Pelosi or Mamdani and AOC. The overall result was +3 for the progressive dems. That’s significant because IIRC it was a poll of all across the spectrum, and conventional wisdom says that the more centrists dems are preferred in that scenario because it includes a lot of conservatives.

      How the dems could right the ship and achieve huge electoral successes is staring them in the face, and they refuse to acknowledge it.

      (Of course, I am not saying progressive dem politicians are good, I am just highlighting that people are fed up with the status quo and the option of “let’s do more free markets, neoliberalism, and austerity is NOT popular at all. I think this highlights that there is an opening for us to develop class consciousness to a degree not seen before in recent memory).

    • very_poggers_gay [they/them]@hexbear.net
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      One interesting tidbit is that Harris voters are 15% more likely to say political violence is sometimes justified than Trump voters.

      To them, it’s only violence if it’s against anti-cracker-aktion

      • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        More like asset appreciation, the rest just follows cpi, so the plebs consume the same (issues with substitution shenanigans aside), and the best servants get cakes and boats (I assume)

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    B-21 rollout nears as China boasts it can shoot it down

    The US Air Force has doubled its B-21 Raider test fleet, flying a second prototype in a milestone that signals faster progress toward its next-generation nuclear and conventional strike arm.

    This month, multiple media sources reported that the US Air Force confirmed the maiden flight of its second B-21 stealth bomber, marking a significant milestone in testing the next-generation aircraft.

    My take from the Iran bombing was that these stealth bombers are the most dangerous single weapon the US has because nobody has any capacity to defend against them. @MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net lemme know if that assessment is whack, but it’s certainly how things looked to me following your discussions there.

    But Xi says that he’s got what it takes to down these things:

    As development continues, China has already begun gaming out counters. In November 2023, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese researchers from Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xian simulated an air battle between the B-21 and its latest fighter and drone technologies, resulting in the aircraft’s shoot-down. The simulation was published in the peer-reviewed journal Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica.

    According to SCMP, a Chinese supersonic stealth fighter with a “conformal skin” capable of detecting the subsonic B-21’s heat and electrical signals, along with a loyal wingman drone, launched an air-to-air hypersonic missile at the B-21.

    From there the article just goes into gaming out actual nuclear war which is fucking terrifying to see discussed so casually. While the cold rationality of the Kissinger-era empire was more effective, it never really seemed like they’d actually nuke someone.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      The stealth bombers are a big advantage for the US because no one has an equivalent, and China’s equivalent is probably a decade away. The B-21 is based on the same concept as the B-2, but smaller so that more can be produced, the US Air Force wants over 100 of them, with some officials wanting 200. It also features upgraded stealth, known as “broadband stealth” to be stealthy from all angles, against radars of varying frequencies, and a further reduction in infrared signature. Lots of work has been done on the engine inlets and exhausts to reduce the radar and infrared signature when viewed from above and behind compared to the B-2. It’s why the inlets look so weird, and there are no clear photos of the exhaust. The “zigzag” rear edge on the B-2 which was implemented to improve low altitude performance has also been removed. Bombers can deliver a payload that fighters simply cannot, as shown by the Iran strikes. This is their huge advantage.

      The challenge with stopping a B-2 or B-21 is not shooting down a single bomber. The bomber just delivers the massive payload, such as two 30 000lb bunker busting bombs, 16 tactical nuclear bombs, or 80 500lb conventional bombs. They don’t go in alone. The challenge is stopping the entire strike package. In Iran the US sent in over 100 aircraft. F-22s sweeping the airspace to take out any aerial threats and providing escort. F-35s with anti radiation missiles and air to air missiles suppressing air defences and escorting the stealth bombers. EA-18Gs doing wide spectrum jamming and suppressing air defences with anti radiation missiles. F-18s with air launched SM-6 missiles that can hit aerial targets from hundreds of miles away. Even some F-16s. That sort of thing. This is almost impossible to stop for most nations.

      The method described here to take out a stealth bomber could work, in isolation. A (likely stealthy) Chinese drone passively detects the B-21 while working with a Chinese stealth aircraft, and calls in a long range missile from said aircraft to try take out the bomber. But in reality, that requires the Chinese drone and aircraft team to detect and get a firing solution on the bomber before the US strike package detects and destroys them. Which is very, very challenging.

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      My take from the Iran bombing was that these stealth bombers are the most dangerous single weapon the US has because nobody has any capacity to defend against them.

      If an American bomber drops a load on one of your cities or important targets and your not sending a nuclear missile to Washington in response then you’ve already lost the plot. China has absolutely nothing to worry, its the other countries without capability to retaliate that do. But in their case who cares about stealth bombers when the full combined force of US plus allies is enough to overwhelm your military in the first place?

      Countries that can defend themselves like all the ones with nukes vs countries that will get bombed regardless if its a stealth bomber or not.

      Stealth is a win more technology. Imagine NATO uses a stealth bomber to attack Russia, what could they realisticaly hit that wouldn’t invite massive retaliation? Russian non-nuclear assets? Russia doesn’t have stealth bombers, yet they must respond somehow and the US knows it. In that scenario using the stealth bombers, inciting a response the Russians can’t match except through escalating towards nuclear response is no different than launching your own nukes in the first place.

      Escalation theory relies on you understanding and respecting your enemies capabilities too, leaving them with no viable response but to escalate is madness. So in reality there are no countries you could use this against except the ones the US already dominates against militarily. All other possible peers(China, India, Russia) in the world also have nukes and other technologies of their own.

      So we have the Iranian example, a country where the US would defeat easily in an air campaign regardless given the incredible air power difference. Yet even then the B-2s did not go in at the very beginning but the opposite, at the very end after Iranian AD was already severely limited.

      Its why stealth is barely above military porn, its a win more tech, perfectly aligned with the US doctrine of imposing fear of an irresistible air campaign aka the 20th century US air doctrine, which is only really a threat to countries without the capability to retaliate.

    • geikei [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      4 hours ago

      The airspace over mainland china wont even be meaningfuly contested by the US even in the case of a us-china war in the theater. Iran had like single digit numbers of outdated for Chinese standards AD batteries, no airforce, no ground base radars, no awacs. B21 are formitable but it the iran engagements says nothing regarding how they would fare against actual technological peers employing platforms at equal or greater numbers.

      No b21 bombing campaigns over mainland China arent surviveable. Especially given thatby the time the US will have enough of them to accept idk 30%+ losses for some valuable target, China would be rolling out their six gens , will have widened the gap in radar tech, they will have 1k 5th gens, they will have prob the largest and most capable awac fleet and the air defense network around most valuable targets will be suffocating.

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    Germany announced 125,000 industrial job cuts in 6 weeks. Congratulations to them! They worked hard for this.

    Auto & Auto Supplier: 110k

    Steel & Heavy Industry: 11k (~40% of the total workforce)

    Rail & Transport: 35k

    Other (logistic, tech, finance): ~15k

      • redchert@lemmygrad.ml
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        Tbf this is a result of nordstream 2 getting blown up, the carte blanche for the Palestinian genocide, has not led to any economic consequences for germany.

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          both flow from american masters. given the choice, they voted for continued american simping

          (not that afd doing their islamo gauchisme bit would be any better in the future, hopefully russia will have non-cucked president to nuke rammstein on first provocation by that time)

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    broke: vassal

    woke: small boy

    the king is calling all his small boys to raise their banners!

    https://archive.ph/5MSHc

    Rheinmetall CEO warns Germany against ‘small boy’ thinking toward US

    Germany must not develop an inferiority complex with the US if it is to help drive through an urgent European-wide rearmament program and become a “reliable partner” to Washington, claims the head of Germany’s largest defense contractor. “We must not be, like we say, ‘a small boy who is working with a big giant,’” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told Breaking Defense at the DSEI trade show in London. “We must be on the same level as the United States of America and Europe. Germany has to play its role,” in defending the continent.

    more

    Prior to taking up the post as German chancellor, Freidrich Merz criticized US President Donald Trump’s “America first” doctrine and said he is prepared for the “worst case scenario,” hinting at a future where Washington would no longer be seen as a trusted ally. But Papperger pushed back on political signaling from Merz for Germany to establish “independence” from the US. “Chancellor Merz now will invest the money, and the whole government will invest the money,” added Papperger, on Berlin’s plans to increase defense spending. “So I think that Germany, but also Europe … will grow up to be a reliable partner of the United States.”

    Trump’s pressure on Europe to do more for its own security has since led to most NATO allies agreeing to a 3.5 percent GDP defense spending pledge and an additional 1.5 percent GDP on related items like infrastructure. The German government is investing “more than the rest of Europe” and years of underspending in the country’s armed forces before the war in Ukraine has been “fixed” under a Ministry of Finance plan to reach a military budget of €160 billion in 2029, said Papperger. Rheinmetall holds robust industrial ties with US giant Lockheed Martin and strengthened cooperation further this week at DSEI by unveiling a next-generation “missile tank destroyer” technology demonstrator. The land system comprises a 6×6 Fuchs armored vehicle and Hellfire Longbow and Joint Air to Ground Munition (JAGM) missiles. The latest move to join forces builds on partnerships across several other high profile weapon system programs including F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets and the Global Mobile Artillery Rocket System (GMARS) capability.

    “We make a Europeanisation of that stuff,” said Papperger. “It’s not that we buy American technology, it’s that we implement American technology into Europe.” Relying on European solutions alone would be counterproductive, he suggested. “If you want to make a R and D [Research and Design] program in Europe to build up everything … you are not [going to be] ready in 10 years,” he said. A total of three F-35A fuselages, being built by Rheinmetall for non US-customers, have so far been produced by the firm at a new production facility in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. A “grand opening” of the site is scheduled in four to six weeks, Papperger explained. In 2023, Rheinmetall stated that “at least” 400 of the fuselages will be manufactured in all.

    “Europeanisation” is when you locally manufacture one part, import everything else (including the engine and the delicate electronics which actually make the plane what it is), and then pat yourself on the back for the might of your domestic industry. This is like that deal for Egyptian M1 Abrams production, where in the end they ended up only being able to make like a fifth of the parts and mostly just assembling tank kits imported from the US.

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      They say this but then do more privatization. Like the piston manufacturing plant my dad works at, almost had to close down entirely, because they needed to import like one small part (to repair something minor, I can’t remember honestly) from the UK. And then instead of not cutting down on storage, they decided to FULLY close down the rest of the warehouses.

      That country wont lead squat.

    • jack [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      Euro capitalist class struggling futilely against their dissolution by US capitalist class. Do you nerds even control your own states or are you all gonna accept the US’s dictates?

      Back in the day a capitalist class under threat from another would start an inter-imperialist war. Now they just eat hot chip and deindustrialize.

      • ziggurter [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        In the modern context, industrial capital can’t compete with financial capital…in the short term and according to the capitalists’ own metrics. And capitalists have boxed themselves into a corner where they are pretty fundamentally unable to break out of that model. Sorry, but (rate of increase of slope of) line went down this quarter; tear out the foundation so things at least superficially look better next quarter!

        (And, of course, we all know that financialization is a very, very, very viable long-term strategy that is built on very real things…)

        I think it’s pretty hilarious that modern neoliberalism has also molded the state into something that’s not going to step in to save the capitalists from their own shortsightedness. Which is a large part of what the state exists for in the first place. Sure, financial bailouts here and there, but nothing that’ll actually get the capitalists to adopt production models that’ll save their businesses for more than a decade or two.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      If you want to make a R and D [Research and Design] program in Europe to build up everything … you are not [going to be] ready in 10 years.

      Which is what everyone has been saying. Maybe Europe should have engaged in some strategic long term plan instead of just riding off of the coattails of the “end of history” cold war end.

  • SickSemper [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    Grain of salt because I can’t find the Reuters report, so take note:

    Found it

    Under US pressure, Syria and Israel inch toward security deal

    Israel has been proceeding with the Balkanization of Syria as scheduled, moving further into the country and arming Druze factions

    more context from yesterday

    Breaking — Israeli Forces Deploy Howitzers in Syria:

    Local sources confirm that Israeli forces have stationed howitzers in Syria capable of reaching the capital, Damascus. The artillery is reportedly placed at IOF-controlled positions since the fall of legitimate government, including Haramoun 1 and 2 in western Damascus countryside and military barracks near al-Hamidiyah in Quneitra.

    According to Yedioth Ahronoth, this marks the deepest Israeli incursion since 1973, reaching 10 km from Damascus and 38 km into Syrian territory. Hundreds of 210th Division soldiers reportedly raided two abandoned Syrian bases, seizing or destroying mortars, anti-tank missiles, Soviet tanks, and 3.5 tons of explosives.

    Zionist-aligned Druze factions in Al-Rihla reportedly welcomed Israeli troops, exposing previous government’s depots and requesting protection from the HTS. Israel now reportedly holds an 5–10 km strip with eight positions, cutting arms routes to Hezbollah. Commanders indicate further deep raids may follow.

    🔹@enemywatch

    https://t.me/enemywatch/41675

    • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      I wonder what neolib jihadis would do now: eat shit as served together with gulf (still in transit, honest) money and become 4 states in a state, or turn their attention to kurds, as erdie financed them to.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      No real surprises, shooting from an elevated position aiming towards a lower target always helps with the range of artillery. Mount Hermon (Haramoun 1 and 2) is 32km from the outskirts of Damascus, and 40km from its centre, and has a peak 2 800m above sea level, making it the highest point in Syria and strategically significant. Plenty of howitzers and rocket artillery can hit Damascus (700m above sea level) from there, even the old M109s with base bleed or rocket assisted projectiles can do it. Also, early warning radars can be placed on Mount Hermon to monitor for potential drone incursions from the east or from Lebanon. Another thing that must be noted is the Israeli capture of key dams in the Yarmouk river basin late last year. All of this took place before any new incursions into Syria. New incursions are just further solidifying Israeli control that already occurred last December.

      They said Syria’s proposal aims to secure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from territory seized in recent months, to reinstate a demilitarized buffer zone agreed in a 1974 truce, and to halt Israeli air strikes and ground incursions into Syria.

      I highly doubt that Israel will give Mount Hermon and the Yarmouk river basin because Al Jolani asked nicely.

      • SickSemper [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        The primary thing I wanted to discuss was not the artillery point, but the issue of Druze groups seeing the government as a threat and how israel is swooping in as a protector, unifying collaborator groups, taking out weapons caches or supply lines.

        Do you think the Hezbollah supply line point is overstated for Israeli propaganda or do you haveany additional thoughts on the internal situation in Syria, re Turkey, the SDF, Suwayda?

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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          Hezbollah supply lines are botth overstated and understated. There’s no going back to the direct overland supply line from Iran through Iraq and Syria, that’s a big loss. But how effective any blockade is depends on how seriously the HTS government in Syria, and the Lebanese government, take the policing of land borders, airports and seaports, and how much pressure the US and Israel can put on Lebanon and Syria to enforce this. The Lebanese Army is supposed to be working on a plan to disarm Hezbollah.

          Turkey, I don’t know. There is both an opportunity for them to go further into the western fold, or to go further towards some independent policy. If Turkey sells it’s S-400s back to Russia, they could get F-35s again as a NATO member. Any chance of an “independent Turkey” would require leaving NATO. Though they could have a “turf war” with Israel over Syria, but I don’t see that going well for Turkey.

  • ghosts [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    Trump just claimed there have been three Venezuelan boats attacked by the U.S. Navy in international waters.

    “We knocked off actually three boats, not two, but you saw two. And the problem is there are very few boats out in the water. There are not a lot of boats out in the water, I can’t imagine why. Not even fishing boats, there’s nobody. Nobody wants to go take a fish.”

    per Fox News this morning

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      Innocent fishermen will continue to be sacrificed to the amerikkkan doomsday cult until Venezuela responds and gives them an excuse to invade.

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        I’d like to see some Venezuelan reporting on the people that were in these boats. If they weren’t drug boats it should be fairly easy to find the friends and families of those killed.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      Video

      They’ve probably struck more than three. Apparently there were 11 people killed in the first action. There were not 11 people on the first boat. MQ-9B Predator B UCAVs are operating out of dual use (both civilian and military) airports in Puerto Rico armed with AGM-114 Hellfire laser guided missiles, according to photographs taken by Reuters correspondents. This photograph was taken at Rafael Hernández International Airport.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    Israel has issued an evacuation warning for the main sea port in the city of Hodeidah, Yemen. Likely imminent airstrikes or drone strikes, to disrupt rebuilding and repair operations.

    Source

    Strikes occurred, 12-13 airstrikes against 3 docks at the port. Collaborated by both Yemeni and Israeli sources. (Al Masirah TV says 12 airstrikes on Hodeidah harbour).

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    Great news! juche-rose https://archive.ph/3At7r

    Bad News: North Korea Is Having a ‘Moment’

    North Korea’s Economic Boom

    North Korea has long been thought of as one of the world’s leading economic basket cases, but it appears to have found a formula for economic growth: Military help for Russia in its war with Ukraine. According to Reuters, North Korea has posted its fastest pace of growth in eight years, according to figures released by South Korea’s Bank of Korea (BOK). The country’s economy grew by 3.7 percent, the report said. This represented the highest rate of growth for North Korea since it jumped 3.9 percent in 2016. The gains, Reuters said, were “backed by expanded economic ties with Russia.”

    more

    North Korea’s strong performance, according to a BOK official during a briefing, is “mainly due to significant increases in manufacturing, construction and mining industries,” which were brought about by North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine. BOK also cited “the strengthening of national policy projects domestically, and expansion of economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia externally.” North Korea’s heavy chemical sector, per the bank, saw double-digit growth. South Korea’s bank has been publishing data about North Korea’s economy, based on “various sources including intelligence and foreign trading agencies and data from the South’s unification ministry,” since 1991, Reuters said.

    North Koreans in Russia

    Per CNN, North Korea recently released a 20-minute propaganda video through state media KCTV, aimed at praising its soldiers who have fought on Russia’s side in Ukraine. The video, per CNN, features “heavily dramatized shots of soldiers on the snow-covered battlefield – handling weapons, holding meetings with Russian soldiers, and installing bombs on trees.” Soldiers in the video are also shown gazing at a portrait of the North Korean leader. It’s not clear, per CNN, how “real” the footage is in the video. Citing Western officials, CNN said that it is believed that up to a third of 12,000 soldiers sent from North Korea as part of the initial deployment were either killed or wounded. Kim held two events in August to meet with families of those killed in the war.

    our realistic and honest documentaries, their propaganda videos

    citing my ass: “yeah actually a gajilion North Koreans died, and all that footage? CGI, not like our brave Ukrainian friends who have never lied or exaggerated throughout the whole war!”

    Kim in China

    The economic numbers were released as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a rare trip out of North Korea, in order to attend a military parade in China to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also scheduled to attend the parade, as is the president of Iran. There is speculation, NBC News reported, that a trilateral meeting might take place among China’s Xi Jinping, Putin, and Kim. NBC also described the military visit as Kim’s “first multilateral event” since he took power upon his father’s death in 2011. Per NBC News, Kim arrived in Beijing by train, clad in a dark suit. “Standing side by side with Xi Jinping and Putin on Tiananmen Gate, he will reproduce the triangular solidarity structure of the Cold War era,” South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said in a message to South Korean lawmakers this week, NBC reported.

    Another Trump/Kim Meeting?

    Donald Trump, during his first term, met on three occasions with Kim, in what were the first meetings between a U.S. president and a North Korean leader in decades. The diplomatic opening was historic, but it never led to any lasting agreement. In August, Trump announced that he would be willing to resume his diplomacy with Kim, and did so while seated next to the president of South Korea. The comments came during the first visit to the White House by President Lee Jae-myung, who recently took over as South Korea’s president. Lee offered to “usher in a new era of peace on the Korean peninsula,” and even raised the possibility of a Trump Tower being built in North Korea one day. “We will do that,” Trump told his South Korean counterpart. “We look forward to meeting with him, and we’ll make relations better.”

    Damn, I didn’t realize that the Seals murdering civilians leaks were like 10 days after Lee Jae Myung met with Trump. What timing!

    also the way other countries’ politicians have learned to just glaze Trump is great, “oh and we’ll build a Trump Tower there too! A Juche Trump Tower!” jagoff

    • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      DPRK really didn’t “find” that. The nato block provided it when they tried to turn Russia’s economy into DPRK’s

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        “Could it be that we made the extremely isolated country less isolated? Nah, they just got lucky somehow”

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    In this time of de-industrialization and continuing failure of military industry to actually deliver new tech on time, you know what the military needs? That’s right, to become just like Silicon Valley, well known for the quality of the things they produce! https://archive.ph/xFIe2

    Army adopts venture capital model to speed tech to soldiers

    The U.S. Army is rolling out a new initiative, dubbed Fuze, that leaders say will overhaul how the service invests in technology by borrowing from Silicon Valley’s venture capital playbook. The service is betting that venture-style risk-taking can shave years off procurement timelines and will determine whether Silicon Valley speed can mesh with Pentagon scale.

    more

    With Fuze, the Army is telling innovators that we’re open for business. Fuze will help us to not only invest but scale promising capabilities — bridging the valley of death,” Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said in a statement to Defense News. Unlike traditional procurement that starts with an Army-defined problem followed by appointing a company to solve the problem, Fuze flips the approach. The new process allows the service to find technology to bring in “that helps us think about what our problems are differently,” Chris Manning, the Army’s deputy assistant secretary for research and technology, told Defense News in a recent interview. Venture capitalists make 100 investments and only end up with a few with outsized returns. The Army is accepting that same risk to capture bigger payoffs. “We’re really taking the approach where we’re going to deliberately make a large number of investments in emerging tech companies,” Matt Willis, the Army’s Fuze program director, said in the interview. “Some tech might not reach the maturity that we want, [but] there’s going to be some companies that are going to have an outsized, revolutionary impact on our soldiers.”

    Y’know, there’s this amazing thing called a planned economy, where you can just, like, put in the economic plan “we’ll provide X money/resources to this and that R&D program”, with the same expectation that not all of this research will actually produce something directly usable, and you don’t even need to pad tech CEO’s wallets for that, you can just have guys directly working for the government doing all that! Many valuable pieces of technology were developed under this model!

    The program aligns four existing fundings streams: XTech prize competitions, small-business funding, tech maturation and manufacturing technology — worth about $750 million in fiscal 2025. The Army plans to initiate the program by running an XTech Disrupt live pitch competition, in partnership with Y Combinator — a technology startup accelerator and VC firm — at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference next month in Washington.

    the… hackernews guys?

    The competition, according to Willis, will focus on four technology areas important to the Army: electronic warfare, unmanned aircraft systems, counter-UAS and energy resiliency at the edge. The prize pool totals $500,000. Technologies that win out in the competition will go straight into the hands of soldiers in operational environments for real-world evaluation. The Army has spent the better part of a decade trying to match its acquisition speed with the rest of the high-tech world, but trying to break down the bureaucracy and change the culture has been a challenging task. Fuze is central to a broader shift in the Army as it seeks dramatic transformation rapidly. “Continuous transformation is like our once-in-a-generation change for the Army to get at and prepare for the future battlefield,” Brandon Pugh, the Army’s cyber adviser, told Defense News. “But a key part of that is the acquisition process to really make sure that the warfighter and the soldier on the battlefield has the correct technology they need.”

    And surely tech-bro dipshits will be able to deliver that. Logistics? Oh, we have an app for that, just pick the ammunition you need from the menu (and don’t forget to tip your BattleDash driver!). This whole program is even named like an app!

    Speed is central to that transformation. “We’re hoping to have a capability to an acquisition pathway in 10 days, and hopefully within 30 to 45 days, for the first prototype to be with an Army unit,” Pugh said. “That is extraordinary.” The Army has struggled with the pace of past acquisitions, particularly in fast-evolving fields like electronic warfare. “It’s so quickly evolving, you have to be able to acquire this quickly and iterate quickly, or else you’re instantly behind, even if you do successfully acquire it. I think that’s the risk,” Pugh noted. Army officials stressed that Fuze is not just a bureaucratic reshuffling. “This isn’t just like a rebranding. We’re coalescing these innovation programs from a strategic, operational and execution standpoint… to help companies move through that pipeline more quickly,” Willis said. “The end outcome we want is having the best technology here quickly,” Pugh said.

    Hmm, I wonder if maybe there’s a reason that technology which people’s lives depend on has a somewhat slower development process than, like, a fucking app. Now, there obviously is plenty of graft in US military procurement, but throwing stacks of cash at random tech companies doesn’t exactly solve that problem.

    • SevenSkalls [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      I’m excited. A lot of that bureaucracy does slow things down, but a lot of it also exists for a reason. With this “move fast and break things” approach from tech they’re going to discover why. Quality in the Army is going to tank. Graft and corruption are going to sky rocket. I love it lol.

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        At least when you paid 300 dollars for a single bolt you’d be sure the bolt would work, now you can pay 300 dollars for the bolt, 30 dollars a month for the continued bolt usage subscription license and AI support bot, and the bolt will be worse quality and not meet spec.

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      I appreciate you running this news beat for the meta. It always lifts the spirits.

      First of all, I love that they gave this a stupid tech startup name. Second, it’s hilarious that they think this will give them the edge over China when it’s exactly this model that has lead to US tech falling behind. It really is wild how empires in their waning days insist on doubling down on all the outdated and outmoded systems that are leading to their decline. But I suppose that’s just the nature of class society - the capitalist class can’t do another model, because it would necessitate going against their immediate class interests.

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            The system isn’t busted, it’s working perfectly. Yeah it’s going to smash into a wall at some point but that’s probably not going to happen anytime soon and if it does they can bail and it’ll only really screw us over. No big deal.

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          i hate to hand it to him, but give peter thiel credit for being the first of the ai grifters to figure out the perfect customer for a product that doesn’t work and costs a lot of money is the dept of defense

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    The Israeli occupation of Gaza city, “Operation Iron Fist” has just begun. An initial division of the IDF/IOF have entered Gaza city, with close air support being provided by aircraft continuously landing and taking off according to Israel. Yes, Israel are actually planning to invade and occupy the entirety of the Gaza strip, including Gaza city, which they have not done so yet. They have now pulled the trigger on this plan, after much speculation.

    Source, xcancel

    Axios also reporting on it