Image is from the Britannica article on CECOT, known as the Terrorism Confinement Center in English.


This megathread’s topic is inspired by our lovely news regular, @Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net, who talks often about the conditions inside El Salvador and gives nuanced and informative takes.

As the Trump administration continues to make foreign policy blunders that would make even the staunchest anti-imperialist accelerationist blush - and we are barely three months in! - it’s interesting to compare and contrast his policies of incompetent imperialist and domestic management to the dictators in other countries.

Bukele is somewhat unique among fascists, in that he seems to not hide - and seems to even admit to - his evil, self-describing as the world’s “coolest dictator”. El Salvador has no particular shortage of prominent fascists in their history, but one major example is Maximiliano Martínez, who led the country over much of the 1930s and the early 1940s. He was responsible the deaths of many thousands of communists and indigneous people, and yet joined World War 2 on the side of the Allies and against the Nazis.

The comparisons between Martínez and Bukele - and, indeed, between Bukele and Trump - in terms of their impact on minority groups are slowly growing as world attention is being drawn to the country. The recent meeting between Bukele and Trump has shifted a spotlight onto El Salvador’s crime policy; the internal conditions of El Salvador’s prisons are genuinely monstrous. One gets a similar feeling as when reading descriptions of the conditions of Holocaust victims in German concentration camps. Trump has made statements to the effect that he want a similar crime crackdown inside the United States, and I certainly believe that he wants this (ICE is already just kidnapping people off the streets into vans), but his administration has been so chaotic and mismanaged that it’s difficult to determine whether this will be an interest he rapidly drops in favor of some other hair-brained scheme.


Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    WSJ: The Russian Military Moves That Have Europe on Edge

    In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.

    Russia is tailoring its rearmament plans to meet the needs of the new troops to be stationed along its NATO border. Those units will get much of the new equipment. Most of what is being sent to the front line in Ukraine is old and refurbished Soviet-era arms.

    The U.S. estimates that around 30,000 Russians are signing up each month, up from about 25,000 last summer. Some Eastern European intelligence officials say the ranks are now swelling by some 40,000 soldiers a month.


    The article is written to push the narrative that Russia is inexplicably preparing to invade NATO, just because they can. Of course, Russia does need to remain prepared for war with NATO in the event of some serious provocation (say, something involving Kaliningrad).

    That said, I think this information also fits my theory that Russia is basically preparing an entire separate, fresh, and modernized army to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, once the age of attrition is over.

    I do wonder if we’ll see many more vehicles at the Victory Day parade this year.

    • RobnHood [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      8 months ago

      I’m sure the eu officials have perfectly good reasons to delay the C919 approval process other than the giant wads of cash they receive from Airbus.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      8 months ago

      He said a crucial test will be for the C919 to fly inside Europe in “extreme” weather such as storms or high heat. “It’s too early to talk about market share,” Lin said. “There are just a handful of C919s out there now.” Engine certification does take time, Patel said, hypothesising the European safety agency will need a longer period to size up the engines, the configuration of other aircraft parts and the flame resistance of materials on board. The relatively small number of C919s in service now gives Europe few “data points” to work from, Patel added. “It’s not just in-service operation, they’ve got to look at emergency evacuation, even the material of the cushions in the cabin,” he said. “It goes through a stringent process.”

      I mentioned this in a previous comment. The small number of C919s in service makes it difficult to get data. Also on the engine issue, there are none flying with the Chinese engines yet, only with the American LEAP 1C engines. So regulators cannot certify what doesn’t exist.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth: ‘Message to IRAN: We see your LETHAL support to the Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the U.S. military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.’

    • Telegram
  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine - NYT

    Article

    A Patriot air-defense system is moving from Israel to Ukraine, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of getting Germany or Greece to send another.

    Ukraine is getting more help in its war with Russia. A Patriot air-defense system that was based in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after it is refurbished, four current and former U.S. officials said in recent days, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece giving another one.

    The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, declined to describe President Trump’s view of the decision to transfer more Patriot systems to Ukraine. The White House’s National Security Council does not provide details on the strength and placement of defense systems, said James Hewitt, a spokesman for the council. “President Trump has been clear: he wants the war in Ukraine to end and the killing to stop,” he said.

    A former White House official said that the Biden administration had secured the agreement with Israel in September, before the election won by Mr. Trump. The Defense Department said in a statement that “it continues to provide equipment to Ukraine from previously authorized” packages, referring to weaponry pulled from existing inventories and new purchases.

    The delivery, which has not been previously reported, comes as Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine, including an April 24 missile strike on Kyiv that was the deadliest since last summer. A year ago, allies struggled to answer a demand by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine for seven Patriot systems. Although Ukraine now has eight, only six are functioning. The other two are being refurbished, one of the U.S. officials said. With the one from Israel, and one from Germany or Greece, Ukraine would have 10 Patriot systems in total, largely to protect the capital, Kyiv.

    As Russia has intensified recent attacks, Mr. Trump’s recent public remarks on the war have softened in favor of Ukraine.

    Mr. Trump had a cordial meeting with Mr. Zelensky at Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome last weekend, after a disastrous one in February in the Oval Office. He has dialed down his negative rhetoric about Mr. Zelensky and questioned whether Russia is serious about peace talks. A delayed minerals deal with Ukraine was signed on Wednesday, paving the way for more U.S. military aid.

    On Saturday, Mr. Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that the minerals deal could mean the United States would send more air-defense systems.

    Under U.S. export rules for sensitive defense equipment, the United States must approve any transfers of the American-made Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, even if they were coming via other countries. The systems are scarce, and their deployment is often a shell game of world hot spots, figuring out which global crisis requires them most to defend U.S. troops, bases and allies.

    Mr. Trump has made ending the war a signature goal of U.S. foreign policy, but at the same time, has flipped that policy on its head. Even though Russia started the war, Mr. Trump has frequently expressed admiration for its president, Vladimir V. Putin, and adopted some Russian talking points, like saying that Ukraine should not be able to join NATO and that Ukraine was somehow responsible for the war despite being invaded.

    Since the start of the war, Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly asked for more Patriot systems, saying they were essential to defend his country. Each Patriot surface-to-air system consists of a battery with a powerful radar system and mobile launchers that fire missiles to intercept incoming projectiles. The United States first sent a Patriot system to Ukraine in April 2023. By January 2024, there were already missile shortages.

    On Friday, Col. Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman in Ukraine’s air force, said it was no secret that Ukraine needed more air defenses. “We are really waiting” for supplies, he said.

    Since taking office, Mr. Trump has publicly brushed off Mr. Zelensky’s requests for more Patriots, which Mr. Zelensky has recently offered to buy. When asked about Mr. Zelensky’s request to buy Patriots almost three weeks ago, Mr. Trump said the Ukrainian leader was “always looking to purchase missiles.” But Russia has been increasing its attacks on Ukrainian cities — including an exploding drone attack on Kyiv on Sunday that wounded 11 people — ever since the United States started pushing peace talks in February.

    On April 24, a Russian ballistic missile killed 13 people and injured almost 90 others in Kyiv. In a rare rebuke of Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump wrote on social media, “Vladimir, STOP!” He later said there was no reason for Mr. Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along.”

    The attack starkly illustrated how Russia can overwhelm Patriot systems, often by sending a barrage of drones and missiles almost simultaneously. Nearly 70 missiles, including ballistic ones, and about 150 attack drones targeted cities across Ukraine that night, although Kyiv was hit the hardest.

    Ukraine lacked the air defenses to shoot down that many missiles and drones, said Ihor Klymenko, the country’s minister of internal affairs. The next night, Mr. Zelensky renewed his offer to buy Patriots. “We are ready to purchase the necessary number of Patriot systems for our country,” he said in his nightly speech. “This is not about charity.”

    On April 26, Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump met on the sidelines of the pope’s funeral in Vatican City, leading to the apparent reset of their relationship after the Oval Office encounter in February. Both Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian president in that meeting, saying he had not expressed sufficient gratitude for American help.

    After the pope’s funeral, Mr. Zelensky said he and Mr. Trump had talked about a deal to share in the profit from extraction of Ukraine’s natural resources. Mr. Trump later said Mr. Zelensky asked for Patriot missiles.

    “He told me that he needs more weapons,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “He’s been saying that for three years.” But then, he added, “Look, he wants to do something good for his country.”

    On Wednesday, the United States and Ukraine signed the minerals deal. While it does not explicitly mention security guarantees for Ukraine, it ensures the possibility of shipments of American weapons to Ukraine if a peace deal is not reached with Russia.

    While Ukraine is still receiving weapons authorized under Mr. Biden, those supplies are expected to end this summer.

    The Patriot systems cost at least $1 billion to build and about 90 troops to run.

    Data compiled by the weapons trackers at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London suggest about 186 Patriot systems are in operation worldwide. The United States owns about one-third of them and has sent many abroad to protect allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

    Several dozen Patriots have been sent to the Indo-Pacific region because of threats from China and North Korea, although the United States recently moved at least one to the Middle East to safeguard Israel.

    European allies own about 40 systems, including the eight now in Ukraine.

    The ninth Patriot coming from Israel and being overhauled for Ukraine is an older model, according to two of the U.S. officials. It is expected to be delivered to Ukraine by this summer. Germany and Greece together own about 15 Patriot systems, according to the international institute’s data.

    Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based organization, said the increased Russian strikes likely sought in part to deplete some of Ukraine’s air defenses and stocks.

    “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning,” Ms. Stepanenko said in an interview.

    • john_brown [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      8 months ago

      Trump decided Ukraine isn’t going to exist in like five years I guess, wonder if he understands that resource deal doesn’t work if Russia controls those resources.

      • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]@hexbear.netBanned
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        8 months ago

        the resource deal trades Ukraine’s natural resources for continued military assistance. This entire charade was never serious, Trump never intended to make peace, it was to pressure the Ukrainians into giving the US its natural resources in exchange for their continued military support.

        Trump doesn’t want to end the war, he wants to get more out of it. He’s not an anti-imperialist, he’s an imperialist. Before the war wasn’t meeting his ROI requirements, now it is, so it’s worth fighting. All wars are simple calculations for imperialists.

          • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]@hexbear.netBanned
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            8 months ago

            Western Ukraine is generally safe outside of the occasional missile. The US will put American civilians on the ground in areas of production and make the (probably safe) bet that Russia won’t strike them.

            On the other hand, it will take 10-20 years to even get the mineral processing discussed in the deal off the ground. By then the war will be over and there will still be a Ukrainian rump state to slurp up

            • john_brown [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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              8 months ago

              The US will put American civilians on the ground in areas of production and make the (probably safe) bet that Russia won’t strike them.

              We’ll see how that pans out. If they put mercenaries on the ground, they’re legitimate targets.

            • john_brown [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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              8 months ago

              To be honest, I think I doubt there will be Americans on the ground extracting resources. The US has made it pretty clear they have no intention to get directly involved in this and if they put civilians on the ground they’ll disavow. The resources available in the Ukraine controlled areas don’t seem particularly compelling.

              edit: hell where are they going to get the local workforce? They’re all either dying in trenches or hiding from conscription. This entire idea is a non-starter while the war continues.

              • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]@hexbear.netBanned
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                8 months ago

                They will bring in European and American workers. That’s what I mean about civilians. I don’t think they will send in the military or even mercenaries necessarily. I think they will call Russia’s bluff and Russia won’t do shit about it

                • john_brown [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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                  8 months ago

                  I think if they get foreign workers it will be expensive, and that defeats the purpose, and even if they’re foreign that doesn’t stop Russia from hitting resource extraction sites. West will disavow. I could certainly be wrong but I don’t see the west doing nuclear war over the paltry resources in UKR.

      • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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        8 months ago

        I doubt russia will conquer all of it. At worst they will lose Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper.

          • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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            8 months ago

            Yeah. I think Putin understands that to get truly what is required for permanent peace, Russia has to occupy almost the entire country, which is a nightmare in a logistical & manpower sense. He made some comments about it.

            Even worse that the disputes will only invite further probing and preparation for the next war by the west and whichever nazi ends up in charge of ukraine.

            • john_brown [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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              8 months ago

              Yeah from the Russian perspective UKR has demonstrated that with any part of the current leadership there will never be a peaceful and secure border. They continue to refuse the reasonable peace demands, which get worse for UKR every time. It seems like the endpoint is Russia controlling basically all of Novorossiya and probably Poland reclaiming territories, with no Ukrainian state remaining.

              • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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                8 months ago

                I doubt Poland will. Not because they dont want to, but because Lviv is the heartland of Ukrainian Nazism and there is a very bloody history between the two countries. Bandera is reviled for his massacre of polish residents of that area and many in poland have soured on ukraine and the refugees. Romania & Hungary almost certainly will though. But the rest of your assessment is spot on.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      8 months ago

      The US put offers on the table for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine gave in at the last minute, signing the natural resource extraction deal on the last day of April, the last day they’d have to sign it. Ukraine ended up signing onto basically the same deal Zelenskyy was offered from February 26-28. Ukraine had to give in to what the US offered, as it’s impossible for all aspects of the Ukrainian state to function without US support, from the military, to the civil sector, to energy and electricity. Ukraine had no choice.

      Whatever offer the US gave Russia to do with recognising Russian territory territory claims in Crimea and the four oblasts, Russia did not accept before May 1st evidently. The problem here was Russia does not fully control these four oblasts yet, including large parts of Donetsk. So Russia would effectively be asking for territory that they do not control yet, while the US would be focused on freezing the conflict at the current frontlines there. The US was not prepared to give territory currently under Ukrainian control to Russia, and Russia was not prepared to freeze the conflict along the current frontline, an impasse that could not be resolved. Russia is only going to accept peace on their terms, which include full control of the four oblasts. The US was not going to give that to them.

      Russia played along by announcing unilateral temporary ceasefires at key dates (Easter April 20, Victory day May 9), but evidently this was not enough to keep the US onboard. And despite temper tantrums by Zelenskyy and Ukrainian nationalists initially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did largely follow the ceasefire on April 20th, they didn’t take the bait to continue fighting while Russia was offering a truce. This was important to signal to the US that they are prepared to go along with any plans they had.

      The situation is quite absurd as the US is a party to this war, not a neutral mediator.

      • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        8 months ago

        Russia already “legally” considers the entirety of the four oblasts as Russian territory. If they agreed to freeze the current borders it would technically mean territorial concessions to Ukraine, in their eyes.

        The most interesting part is that, theoretically, this means they won’t stop until they cross the Dnieper in at least two places, Kherson and Zaporizhia. And if they cross that big river…

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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          8 months ago

          Russia already “legally” considers the entirety of the four oblasts as Russian territory. If they agreed to freeze the current borders it would technically mean territorial concessions to Ukraine, in their eyes.

          Yeah, it’s in the Russian constitution, but the problem is that they don’t fully control them, yet at least.

          Taking Kherson is going to be a massive operation, unless Ukraine completely collapses, it’s a long ways away.

          • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            8 months ago

            If Russia had truly run out of steam, they would have taken whatever peace deal they could get from the US. They’re in it for the long haul now, which means they must have a plan for victory.

        • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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          8 months ago

          They do not “need” to reconquer Kherson. They will trade Sumy or Kharkiv for it. Although Its possible they annex parts of Kharkiv until the Oskil river for defense purposes, the donbass is very exposed otherwise.

          • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            8 months ago

            Personally I don’t see Ukraine ever willingly giving up Kherson. It’s too powerful of a symbol for Ukrainian nationalists. Not to mention its strategic importance, should another conflict happen in the future.

            • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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              8 months ago

              Russia could always attack through Belarus, I doubt they would keep Kherson if Kiev or Rivne were under russian occupation. Anyways, they will only come to the table, when such pride issues are no longer viable in the first place.

              • BreathThroughTheTube [he/him]@hexbear.netBanned
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                8 months ago

                Yep basically there will never be peace until the Ukrainians remove their nationalists from power and cede on their “pride”. Their “pride” is the entire problem here

      • Sinisterium@hexbear.net
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        8 months ago

        Imagine if they stopped all weapon shipments, financial aid and threatened sanction - there would be peace by tomorrow.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    The Washington Post reports that Mike Waltz was dismissed due to his extensive communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about military action against Iran. Officials in the Trump administration believed he was trying to ‘tip the scales in favor of military action’ and was closely collaborating with the Israelis.

    • Telegram
  • LoveYourself [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    US adds 10 more mining projects onto the “fast track.”

    Not mentioned in the article is that mining projects that will poison Apache (Resolution Copper mine), Navajo (La Jara Mesa uranium mine), and Ojibwe (Northmet copper-sulfide mine) tribal lands have been “fast tracked” over the past 2 weeks.

  • FuckyWucky [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    It’s looking like US GDP decline in Q1 was in part due to tariff frontrunning (since imports reduce GDP Growth, exports increase it).

    It’ll be worse when consumption and investments starts declining. Combine that with low government spending, it’s not good.

  • Elon Musk’s company town: SpaceX employees to vote on ‘Starbase’

    Starbase sits on a tiny piece of land near the Mexican border on a small bay that feeds into the Gulf of Mexico. Prefabricated houses, airstreams and palm trees line the streets. An imperious golden bust of Musk stands nine feet tall outside the town. A plaque on its pedestal reads “ELON aka Memelord”.

    Last month, vandals defaced the statue by peeling off layers of foam and fiberglass from its cheeks. There is an employee-only restaurant called Astropub with a neon red “Occupy Mars” sign behind the bar. One of the main boulevards is called “Memes Street”.

    cringe

  • StalinistApologist [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    8 months ago

    Talking politics with my mom and grandpa. (Gpa has good views, mom still has faith in voting out the bad reps at midterms…)

    I need some infographics/memes to show him what elon and trump are doing. I don’t even know the inflation rate, he thinks it’s 3%, maybe… Im totally unequipped to talk politics even though I read shit every day. How does anyone keep up with all the shit trump is doing?