So waaaay back in the year of our Lord 2014, a little organization called the IPCC was putting together its fifth climate change assessment report. It included what is now considered the wildly pessimistic RCP8.5 emissions pathway. Under that pathway, global temperatures were expected to exceed 1.5 C on average by the 2030s.
You have to knock about half a degree off their charts to compare to this one because the 1986-2005 average is about half a degree over the pre-industrial average.
There’s already disagreement over what the “preindustrial baseline” actually is and folks outside of climatology will just choose a nice-sounding 20-25 year interval between 1960 and 2010, so you’re pretty much on the money.
So waaaay back in the year of our Lord 2014, a little organization called the IPCC was putting together its fifth climate change assessment report. It included what is now considered the wildly pessimistic RCP8.5 emissions pathway. Under that pathway, global temperatures were expected to exceed 1.5 C on average by the 2030s.
You have to knock about half a degree off their charts to compare to this one because the 1986-2005 average is about half a degree over the pre-industrial average.
Wait that’s brilliant, global warming is solved, just keep moving the baseline! /s
There’s already disagreement over what the “preindustrial baseline” actually is and folks outside of climatology will just choose a nice-sounding 20-25 year interval between 1960 and 2010, so you’re pretty much on the money.